Written by Nand Tandan
Twenty years ago, the United States President George W. Bush ordered an attack on Saddam Hussain’s Iraq to destroy its non-existent Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs). The attack by the US and its allies – the U.K, Australia and Poland – has since been widely viewed as undertaken on behest of the US oil industry to secure oil supplies. This suspicion was bolstered by the fact that the biggest supporter of the war, Vice President Dick Cheney, was closely associated with the oil industry giant, Haliburton. The American Oil industry in general and the oil equipment supplier Halliburton, in particular, did indeed profit from the Iraq attack. But they were not the only or even the main winners, both inside and outside Iraq.
The first winners were the political opponents of Saddam Hussain living in exile in the western countries; they were made in charge of the Iraqi government although they could not retain their power for long. Soon, the Shia clerics became the dominant force, including those like Muqtada Al Sadr who were in exile in Iran during Saddam’s rule. The Shia militia unleashed violence which led to the birth of the Sunni resistance movement. This movement gave birth to the Al Qaida in Iraq and finally to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or simply Islamic State (IS) which is the main flag bearer of Islamic extremism now. The other big winners were Iraqi Kurds who have been able to create a successful near autonomic and prosperous region for themselves in Iraq.
Outside Iraq, the big winners were Iran and Israel. Saddam’s Sunni regime which was hostile to Iran has been replaced by a friendly Shia regime where their former protégé, Muqtada Sadr, wields considerable political influence. Saddam’s Iraq was a constant irritant for Israel and the biggest supporter of Palestinian resistance and Hamas. Saddam had a practice of compensating the family of any Palestinian killed in fight against Israel. Although Iraq did not have any WMDs, it did have Scud missiles and had the resources to build other missiles which could hit Israeli targets. It was also the only Arab army which could become a potential threat to Israel.
Another big winner was the Taliban in Afghanistan. As Bush shifted his attention to Iraq, the decimated Taliban regrouped and started an effective and ultimately successful resistance to the incompetent and corrupt regime of Hamid Karzai. It also benefitted the Taliban supporting Pakistani establishment in the short term while the US troops were stationed in Afghanistan and needed logistic support of Pakistan for their maintenance. It could extract large payments for its logistic support to Americans while also helping to prolong their stay with its support of the Afghan Taliban whom it considered “good terrorists”.
There were also several losers both inside Iraq and outside. Insider Iraq, the big loser was the Sunni minority which lost its dominant position in the country in all spheres – political, economic and military. The other big losers were the Non-Muslim minorities, especially Christians who had enjoyed full religious freedom in Saddam’s secular regime and indeed occupied key positions in his government, including his lieutenant, Tariq Aziz. They faced discrimination in the Shia dominated regime that replaced Saddam.
A big loser in Iraq were women. Despite its well-deserved reputation of human rights abuser, the Saddam regime was quite progressive as far as women were concerned. Women under Saddam were quite active in all fields and held influential positions. By comparison, the religious regime that replaced Saddam was quite regressive towards women.
Internationally, the losers were other countries of the middle east who had to struggle with the militant forces unleashed by the occupation of Iraq. But the biggest loser was indeed the United States which got itself stuck in the quagmire of the middle east from which it took several years, many America lives and hundreds of billions of dollars to extricate itself.
Known Unknowns 